When ‘old and out of touch’ sage dispense financial advice, the least we can do is give him the respect and courtesy of listening. Most investors, both retail and professional nowadays, never saw the dark gloomy depression of the 30's and the recessions in the 60's and 70's. Most of them aren’t even born then and the rest not old enough to walk. Future more, the majority of current retail investors only started owning stocks during the great BULL run from 1990 to 2000. When they bring up the charts, they see the great 45% ascending line of stocks during that period. By drawing a straight line on the stock prices, they envisioned a prosperous period ahead, and the 2001-2002 price depreciation is only a break for the next or the continuation of the great BULL run.
I believe in the cosmic 40yr cycle--20yr up and 20yr down. Of course we are not talking about a precise 20yr breakdown. Below is the breakdown of the cycles.
09-29 ~ 09-41 = BEAR
10-41 ~ 09-65 = BULL
10-65 ~ 09-81 = BEAR
10-81 ~ 09-99 = BULL
10-99 ~ xx-xx = BEAR
Like fashion, those ‘old and out of touch’ professional money managers, who have at least invest through one cosmic cycle are now coming in fashion as the cycle rotates back to their time.
Sir John Templeton is one of those old knights who is, fortunately for young and naives, willing to cast a guiding light upon us.
Please read the following interviews of Sir John Templeton and heed his words.
Apr 1, 2004
Feb 4, 2004
Jul 14, 2003
posted by jason @ 3:05 PM
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