For those who have spoken to me in the recent months know that I joined the “secular BEAR, cyclical BULL” camp in Jan of 2004. My family is already immune to my new found identity, as I use every opportunity to talk about this very exclusive club.
In summary, the US market entered a secular BEAR market in April 2000, and emerged into a cyclical BULL in March 2003. I don’t know when the cyclical BULL will end, but I do know that the market is clearly forming a top during the past two months, which it will be years to come before we will ever see these levels again. In the past 17 cyclical BULL markets, the S&P 500 was up 50% and lasted 371 days on average. You do the math. And now I want to share my BIG four trends that will reveal in the coming years.
Trend 1: Interest rate has nowhere to go but up--the housing market will collapse like a house of cards. Greenspan, which I will often refer him as Greenie, was ahead of me last week.
Trend 2: Crude oil will reach over $100 per barrel. Get used to the current $2 gas price, so you don't choke yourself when the gas stations started puting 3, 4 and then 5 in front of the decimal.
Trend 3: Coming out of its own secular BEAR, NIKKEI is gearing up to for its secular BULL marathon.
Trend 4: As the US Dollar collapse, gold, the only currency with real intrinsic value, will prevail, and traded as such, meaning north of $800 per ounce. But I am no gold bug yet!!!
Honestly, I know when I look at this post a year from now; my first remark would be that I put down numbers ($100 per barrel and $800 per ounce). And to that I said…but I did cleverly leave out when it will happen.
That’s all for today or for the first week of the blog.
Tomorrow is very important, as it will confirm if this 2-day sell-off is the cyclical BULL forming a top or just taking a breather. My money is on the former, meaning the market will continue where it left off today. To tell you the truth, even if DOW, NASDAQ and S&P500 all ended a few points higher tomorrow, as I said above, these indices had already formed a nice top since March. And I will show that on my next blog.
Okay. No more market predictions. I think I had put enough to give myself a bad rap already.
posted by jason @ 6:10 PM
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